Everything you need to start predicting

Poly Paul Prediction is a decentralized prediction market for World Cup football, built natively on Solana. Every major outcome — match winners, exact scores, top goalscorers, clean sheets, group qualification, and tournament milestones — becomes a tradable binary market. Prices reflect the crowd's live probability, and outcomes settle through transparent sports-data oracles.

Each market poses a yes-or-no question with a defined resolution rule, such as “Will Brazil win their opening match?” Traders buy YES or NO shares. If the outcome resolves in your favor, each of your winning shares pays out $1; if not, they're worth $0. The current price of a YES share, in cents, is the market's implied probability of that outcome.

YES and NO prices always sum to 100¢. If YES trades at 68¢, NO trades at 32¢. Buying YES at 68¢ means you pay $0.68 for a share that returns $1.00 if the outcome happens — an implied 68% chance. As new information arrives, prices move, and you can sell your shares back into the market before resolution to lock in gains or cut losses.

When the underlying event concludes, the market enters resolution. The verified outcome is written on-chain, winning shares become redeemable for $1 each, and losing shares expire at $0. On Solana, settlement is fast — typically a couple of seconds — so winnings are claimable almost immediately after a result is confirmed.

Results come from multiple independent sports-data providers rather than a single source. A market only resolves when a consensus threshold (for example, 3 of 5 sources) agrees on the outcome. A short dispute window then lets stakers challenge anomalies before funds move. Only after that does the result finalize on-chain. See the Oracle page for live status.

Each market is backed by a liquidity pool that lets traders enter and exit without waiting for a matching counterparty. Liquidity providers deposit into these pools and earn a share of trading fees plus $PAUL incentives. Deeper liquidity means tighter spreads and less price impact on larger trades.

A small fee (around 2%) is applied to trades and routed to liquidity providers and the protocol treasury. Solana network fees are a fraction of a cent. $PAUL stakers receive fee discounts, and a portion of protocol fees can be directed by governance toward rewards and the security fund.